US Diesel Hits Record $6.04/Gallon: Sept 12 2026

Published September 13, 2026 — Washington, D.C. US retail diesel prices hit a record $6.04 per gallon on September 12, 2026 — the highest in EIA daily-survey history — after a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline shut 4-5 million barrels per day of crude flow. US retail gasoline is averaging $4.50-$4.65/gal. The record diesel prices hit trucking, supply chains, and heating oil for winter 2026-2027, and have shifted the Fed's September 15-16 hike odds to 92% (EIA, AAA, September 13, 2026).

Data last verified September 13, 2026 from the Energy Information Administration daily retail diesel survey, AAA daily fuel price survey, and the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2026.

At a glance

• US diesel hit a record $6.04/gal on September 12, 2026 — highest in EIA daily-survey history, breaking the prior $5.81/gal record from summer 2022 (EIA, September 13, 2026).
• Driver: Saudi East-West pipeline attack shut 4-5 million bpd of crude flow (4-5% of global supply); Brent crude rose 8% to $98/barrel.
• Trucking rates will rise 8-12% on the West Coast and 4-6% nationally in Q4 2026; last-mile delivery (UPS, FedEx, Amazon) up 4-7%.
• Heating oil for winter 2026-27 projected at $4.20-$4.80/gal, up 20-30% YoY (EIA STEO).
• September 16 FOMC hike odds now 90-92% (CME FedWatch), up from 60% pre-attack; Fed funds 0.50-0.75% by year-end.

Quick Answer

US retail diesel hit a record $6.04 per gallon on September 12, 2026 — the highest in EIA daily-survey history — after a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline shut 4-5 million barrels per day of crude flow (4-5% of global supply). Brent crude rose 8% to $98/barrel. The previous diesel record was $5.81/gal in summer 2022. Trucking rates will rise 8-12% on the West Coast and 4-6% nationally in Q4 2026. The September 16 Fed hike odds are now 92%, up from 60% pre-attack (EIA, AAA, CME FedWatch, September 13, 2026).

What is driving the record diesel prices?

The Saudi East-West pipeline attack on September 12, 2026 shut 4-5 million barrels per day of crude flow (4-5% of global supply). Brent crude rose 8% to $98/barrel in a single session, and US retail diesel hit a record $6.04/gal — the highest in EIA daily-survey history, breaking the prior record of $5.81/gal set in summer 2022. The pipeline had been carrying crude since the Iran war closed the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026; its loss removes the redundant bypass that had kept Gulf oil flowing despite the Hormuz closure. Saudi spare capacity (~2 million bpd) can redirect flows through the Sumed pipeline (Egypt-Red Sea bypass) within 2-3 weeks, but until then, global crude supply is structurally short (EIA, September 13, 2026).

Gasoline and diesel spread

US retail gasoline is averaging $4.50-$4.65 per gallon, with the gasoline-diesel spread at $1.39/gal — the widest since 2022. Diesel typically trades at a $0.30-$0.50 premium to gasoline; the September 12 spread of $1.39 reflects heating-oil and trucking demand competing with gasoline for the same distillate pool. AAA daily survey data shows California gasoline at $5.20-$5.50/gal, Texas at $4.10-$4.30/gal (AAA, September 13, 2026).

How does this affect trucking and supply chains?

High diesel prices hit trucking and supply chains in three compounding ways.

1. Direct trucking cost

Trucking is 60-70% of US freight transportation, and diesel is the largest cost line. A 50% YoY diesel increase adds roughly 15-20% to trucking costs. Long-haul carriers on the West Coast running California-Texas round trips will pay roughly $1,200 more in fuel per week than a Texas-based carrier on the same route. Expect West Coast trucking rates to rise 8-12% in Q4 2026 and national rates to rise 4-6% (American Trucking Association, September 2026).

2. CPI pass-through

Every $0.10 per gallon increase in diesel adds roughly 0.05 percentage points to headline CPI within 6 months. The September 12 diesel spike adds an estimated 0.10-0.15 percentage points to the Q4 2026 headline CPI print, on top of the 0.4-0.6% monthly increase from energy-intensive goods. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is less affected but indirect effects appear with a 60-90 day lag (American Trucking Association, BLS, September 2026).

3. Last-mile delivery

UPS, FedEx, and Amazon last-mile delivery rates rise 4-7% within 90 days of a sustained diesel shock. Amazon Prime same-day delivery surcharges already increased $0.50-$1.00 per order on September 12; UPS Ground announced a 4.9% general rate increase effective October 7. Consumers should expect higher shipping fees on holiday orders and slower delivery on bulky items (UPS, FedEx, September 2026).

State-by-state diesel prices (September 13, 2026)

Diesel prices vary by state, with the West Coast highest and the Gulf Coast lowest. National range $5.50-$6.60/gal — the widest spread since 2022.

Source: EIA daily retail diesel survey + AAA daily fuel price survey, September 13, 2026.

How does this affect the Fed and inflation?

The diesel shock is energy-side inflationary for the September and October CPI prints, shifting the September 16 FOMC hike odds to 90-92%. Markets priced only 60% hike odds before the September 12 attack; CME FedWatch now prices 92%, with the consensus path a 0.50-0.75% Fed funds range by year-end 2026 (vs 0.25-0.50% pre-attack). Most economists put the 2027 recession risk at 35-45%, up from 20-25% pre-attack — stagflation is the dominant risk scenario for 2026-2027 (CME FedWatch, Bloomberg, September 13, 2026).

What the Fed has signaled

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said on September 12 that "a sustained energy supply shock of this magnitude closes the dovish path." The Fed historically "looks through" energy shocks as transitory, but the Iran-war context makes this supply shock more durable than 2022. Expect a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting, with hawkish guidance that signals further hikes if oil stays above $90/barrel through Q4 2026 (Federal Reserve Board, September 12, 2026).

When will diesel and gas prices come down?

Three scenarios bracket the path back to $4-$5/gal diesel. Each requires at least one of the upside drivers to reverse.

Source: EIA STEO September 2026 + analyst consensus, September 13, 2026.

What to watch

Three signals tell you which scenario is playing out: (1) Saudi Aramco Sumed pipeline bypass timeline announcements (the Egypt-Red Sea alternate can carry 2-3 million bpd once redirected, in 2-3 weeks); (2) the September 14 Oman meeting outcome on the Iran-US tanker war; (3) EIA weekly retail diesel surveys, published every Monday. EIA STEO updates its monthly forecast on October 10 (EIA STEO, Reuters, September 13, 2026).

FAQ

Why are diesel prices so high right now?

US diesel hit a record $6.04/gal on September 12, 2026 after the Saudi East-West pipeline attack shut 4-5 million bpd of crude supply. Brent crude rose 8% to $98/barrel.

How much will diesel cost this winter?

If the Saudi pipeline restarts within 4 weeks, diesel will ease to $5.50-$5.80/gal by Q1 2027. If the pipeline stays shut, diesel could hit $6.50-$7.50/gal.

Which state has the cheapest diesel?

Gulf Coast states (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama) currently have the cheapest diesel at $5.50-$5.90/gal.

Will diesel prices lower Fed rate cuts?

Yes — the diesel shock has shifted the September 16 FOMC hike odds to 90-92% (from 60% pre-attack) and reduces the odds of 2027 rate cuts.

Last verified: September 13, 2026. Sources: EIA daily retail diesel survey; AAA daily fuel price survey; EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2026; CME FedWatch; Reuters; American Trucking Association.