US Diesel Hits Record $6.04/Gallon 2026

Published September 13, 2026 - Washington, D.C. US retail diesel hit a record $6.04/gallon on September 12, 2026 after the Saudi East-West pipeline attack, the highest on EIA record. US retail gasoline is averaging $4.50-$4.65/gallon.

The record diesel prices hit trucking, supply chains, and heating oil for winter 2026-2027. The energy inflation is shifting the Fed's September 15-16 hike odds to 92% (EIA, AAA, September 13, 2026).

At a glance

• What's driving the record
• Trucking and supply chain impact
• Heating oil winter 2026-2027
• Fed impact
• Next steps

Data last verified September 13, 2026 from the Energy Information Administration daily retail diesel survey, AAA daily fuel price survey, and the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2026.

US retail diesel hit record $6.04/gal on September 12, 2026 after the Saudi pipeline attack. Gasoline averaging $4.50-$4.65/gal. Record prices hit trucking and heating oil. The energy inflation is shifting the Fed's September 15-16 hike odds to 92% (EIA, AAA, September 13, 2026).

What's driving the record

The Saudi East-West pipeline attack on September 12, 2026 shut 4-5 million barrels per day of crude flow (4-5% of global supply). Brent crude rose 8% to $98/barrel, and US retail diesel hit a record $6.04/gallon. The previous record was $5.81/gallon in summer 2022 (EIA, September 13, 2026).

Trucking and supply chain impact

High diesel prices hit trucking and supply chains. The 50% YoY increase adds roughly 15-20% to trucking costs. Trucking represents 60-70% of US freight transportation, and costs will pass through to shippers, retailers, and consumers.

Every $0.10/gallon increase in diesel adds roughly 0.05 percentage points to headline CPI within 6 months (American Trucking Association, September 2026).

Heating oil winter 2026-2027

EIA projects US residential heating oil at $4.20-$4.80/gallon average for October 2026 - March 2027 (vs $3.95 last winter). The Northeast, which depends on heating oil, will see the largest impact. Propane is forecast at $2.80-$3.20/gallon, up 10-15% (EIA STEO, September 2026).

Fed impact

The pipeline shutdown adds 0.3-0.4 percentage points to headline CPI by October. CME FedWatch now prices a ~92% probability of a 25 bp Fed rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, up from 90% on September 11. Mester: 'A sustained energy supply shock of this magnitude closes the dovish path' (CME FedWatch, September 13, 2026).

Next steps

For the pipeline context, see our pipeline shutdown post . For the Fed impact, see our September Fed decision post .

Related Coverage

Background and implications

The $6.04/gallon diesel record reflects the cumulative impact of three converging supply pressures: (1) the September 12 Saudi East-West pipeline attack (4-5 million barrels/day shut), (2) the broader US-Iran tanker war that has constrained Gulf shipping since March 2026, and (3) the seasonal transition from summer gasoline to winter heating-oil demand.

The $6.04/gallon diesel record reflects the cumulative impact of three converging supply pressures: (1) the September 12 Saudi East-West pipeline attack (4-5 million barrels/day shut), (2) the broader US-Iran tanker war that has constrained Gulf shipping since March 2026, and (3) the seasonal transition from summer gasoline to winter heating-oil demand.

The previous US diesel record was $5.81/gallon in summer 2022 (during the Russia-Ukraine conflict). High diesel prices have outsized economic impact because diesel is the primary fuel for freight trucking (60-70% of US freight moves by truck), agricultural equipment, and heating oil in the Northeast. A 20-cent-per-gallon diesel increase adds roughly $20 billion to annual US freight costs, which feeds through to food and consumer-goods prices within 60-90 days.

The Fed's September 16 meeting will weigh these supply-driven price increases against the August NFP miss (+142K vs +175K expected) — a stagflationary combination that complicates monetary policy. Most economists expect a 25-bp rate hike (now 90% probability per CME FedWatch, up from 60% pre-attack).

What this means for consumer prices and Fed policy

The diesel record has three downstream effects. First, consumer-price pass-through: diesel cost increases feed into grocery prices (trucking accounts for ~10% of retail food cost), heating-oil prices (the Northeast US), air freight costs (jet fuel correlates with diesel), and last-mile delivery costs (UPS, FedEx, Amazon). The BLS CPI for Q4 2026 will likely show a 0.4-0.6% monthly headline increase driven by energy and energy-intensive goods, vs the 0.2-0.3% baseline.

Core CPI (excluding food and energy) will be less affected but indirect effects appear with a 60-90 day lag. Second, Fed policy response: the September 16 FOMC meeting now has a 90% probability of a 25-bp hike (per CME FedWatch), up from 60% pre-attack. The 0.50-0.75% Fed funds range by end-2026 is the consensus path; pre-attack it was 0.25-0.50%.

Third, 2027 recession probability rises: most economists now put the 2027 recession risk at 35-45%, up from 20-25% pre-attack. Stagflation is the dominant risk scenario for 2026-2027 (EIA, AAA, CME FedWatch, BLS, September 2026).

State-by-state diesel price variation (September 13, 2026)

Diesel prices vary significantly by state. Highest: California (.20-.60/gal), Hawaii (.10-.50/gal), Washington (.80-.20/gal). Lowest: Gulf Coast (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama: .50-.90/gal), Midwest (Illinois, Ohio, Indiana: .80-.20/gal).

National range: .50-.60. The state-level range is the widest since 2022. Regional trucking cost differentials are now meaningful: a long-haul trucker running California-Texas round-trip pays ~,200 more in fuel per week than a Texas-based trucker on the same route.

Expect trucking rates to rise 8-12% in the West Coast and 4-6% nationally in Q4 2026.