Fazlur Rahman
Published September 15, 2026 - Washington, D.C. The Federal Reserve's September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, due Wednesday at 2:00 PM Eastern, is expected to show a 10-8 majority of FOMC participants favoring one more interest rate hike in 2026 with the end-2026 median dot moving up to 3.50-3.75% from the June SEP's 3.25-3.50%.
Data last verified September 15, 2026 from Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs Research, Credit Agricole CIB Research, and Bloomberg coverage of pre-FOMC positioning.
The September 2026 SEP dot plot is expected to show the end-2026 median dot at 3.50-3.75%, with a 10-8 majority favoring one more hike this year. Goldman Sachs Research raised their terminal rate forecast to 3.25-3.50% from 3.00-3.25%. Two 2027 cuts are now expected in September and December rather than June and December. Last verified: Sep 15, 2026.
At a glance
- SEP release: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET
- End-2026 median dot: expected 3.50-3.75% (up from June's 3.25-3.50%)
- Majority view: 10-8 favoring one more 2026 hike
- Terminal rate: 3.25-3.50% (GS forecast)
- 2027 cut timing: September and December (shifted from June and December)
- 2028 dot: median 3.00-3.25% expected
- Longer-run dot: 2.75-3.00%
How the dot plot is built
Each of the 19 FOMC participants submits an anonymous projection for where the federal funds rate should sit at year-end and over the longer run. The dots are plotted on a chart released four times a year, alongside the Summary of Economic Projections.
The September SEP is one of four quarterly releases in 2026. The June 2026 SEP showed a median end-2026 dot of 3.25-3.50%, indicating expectations of roughly one more 25bp hike from the then-current 3.25-3.50% target range. The September SEP will incorporate the August CPI release on September 11, 2026 which showed core inflation running hotter than consensus at +0.3% month-over-month (Federal Reserve, June 2026 SEP; Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release, September 11, 2026).
What Goldman Sachs expects
Goldman Sachs Research expects a 10-8 majority split favoring one more hike in 2026 with the end-2026 median dot moving higher. Their analysts cite post-CPI repricing and the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole hawkish tone as the proximate drivers.
| SEP variable | June 2026 release | September 2026 expected | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| End-2026 median dot | 3.25-3.50% | 3.50-3.75% | +25bp |
| End-2027 median dot | 3.00-3.25% | 2.75-3.00% | -25bp |
| End-2028 median dot | 3.00-3.25% | 3.00-3.25% | Unchanged |
| Longer-run dot | 2.75-3.00% | 2.75-3.00% | Unchanged |
| 2026 hike count (median path) | 2 hikes | 3 hikes | +1 hike |
| 2027 cut count (median path) | 2 cuts (Jun, Dec) | 2 cuts (Sep, Dec) | Timing shift |
Source: Goldman Sachs Research forecast for September 16, 2026 SEP release; Federal Reserve June 2026 SEP Table 1.
Goldman Sachs Research added a 25bp hike at this week's September FOMC meeting to their forecast last Friday following the August CPI report. The 2 cuts in 2027 were shifted from June and December to September and December. The terminal rate forecast rose to 3.25-3.50% from 3.00-3.25% previously (Goldman Sachs Research, September 14, 2026).
Why the 10-8 split matters
A 10-8 split means one participant could flip dovish in the December dot plot and shift the median path back toward one cut in 2027. The dispersion of dots is as informative as the median.
Goldman Sachs Research expects a 10-8 majority to show one remaining hike in 2026 because some participants might be ambivalent about the first hike and some might want to avoid pushing market expectations any higher. The 8 dots indicating no further hike in 2026 create a tail risk of a December pause if Q4 2026 CPI prints softer (Goldman Sachs Research, September 14, 2026).
The 2027 path and mortgage implications
Goldman Sachs now expects the first 2027 cut in September rather than June, with a second in December. This timing shift pushes rate relief for mortgages and credit cards into late 2027.
Mortgage rates are already at 6.83-7.10% on the 30-year fixed as of mid-September 2026. Under Goldman's revised path, the 30-year fixed stays in the 6.50-7.25% range through Q4 2026 and only drops below 6.50% in mid-2027 when the first cut lands. Credit card APRs, tied to the prime rate, stay near 8.50% through mid-2027 (Goldman Sachs Research, September 14, 2026; Mortgage News Daily, September 15, 2026).
Risks to the Goldman baseline
Three risks could push the dot plot in either direction at the September release. The August CPI hot core print is the dominant driver.
| Risk | Probability | Dot plot implication |
|---|---|---|
| September CPI (Oct 11 release) softens to +0.2% m/m core | 25% | End-2026 median falls back to 3.25-3.50% |
| Q4 2026 core CPI averages +0.25% m/m or higher | 35% | End-2026 dot stays at 3.50-3.75%; one more hike priced |
| Labor market weakens (payrolls <100K for 2 months) | 20% | 2027 first cut moves back to June; 2 cuts become 3 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Research scenario probabilities, September 14, 2026; Federal Reserve Q4 2026 outlook, 2026.
How the September dot plot compares to recent SEPs
The end-2026 dot has trended higher in each SEP since the March 2026 release as inflation has stayed stickier than the Fed expected. Four consecutive SEPs have signaled fewer rate cuts in the near term.
| SEP release date | End-2026 median dot | End-2027 median dot | Hikes in 2026 (median path) |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2026 | 2.75-3.00% | 2.50-2.75% | 0 hikes |
| June 2026 | 3.25-3.50% | 3.00-3.25% | 2 hikes |
| September 2026 (expected) | 3.50-3.75% | 2.75-3.00% | 3 hikes |
| December 2026 (forward consensus) | 3.50-3.75% or lower | 2.50-2.75% | 3 hikes + 1 cut (Q4 possible) |
Source: Federal Reserve SEP archive, March 2026 through September 2026; Goldman Sachs Research September 14 forecast.
FAQs
The questions above cover what the dot plot shows, the Goldman forecast, terminal rate path, 2027 cut timing, dispersion in the FOMC, and mortgage and credit card implications.
