Fazlur Rahman
Published September 13, 2026 - Washington, D.C. Mortgage rates on September 13, 2026: 30-year fixed 6.85-7.12% across daily surveys, up from 6.73% on September 10. The 15-year fixed is 5.98-6.18%, the 30-year jumbo is 7.12-7.28%, and the 5/1 ARM is 6.18-6.42%. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.38% - up 20 bp from September 10 after the hot August CPI print and the Saudi East-West pipeline attack (Freddie Mac PMMS, Mortgage News Daily, Bankrate, September 11-13, 2026).
Data last verified September 13, 2026 from the Freddie Mac PMMS for the week ending September 11, Mortgage News Daily daily survey, and Bankrate weekly survey.
Quick Answer
Mortgage rates September 13, 2026: 30-year fixed 6.85-7.12%, 15-year fixed 5.98-6.18%, 30-year jumbo 7.12-7.28%, 5/1 ARM 6.18-6.42%. 10-year Treasury at 4.38% (up 20 bp from September 10). Up after August CPI + Saudi pipeline attack (Freddie Mac PMMS, September 11, 2026).
Mortgage rates by loan type (September 13, 2026)
| Loan type | Freddie Mac PMMS (Sep 11) | Mortgage News Daily (Sep 12) | Bankrate (Sep 13) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed | 6.86% | 7.04% | 7.12% |
| 15-year fixed | 6.06% | 5.98% | 6.18% |
| 30-year jumbo | 7.12% | 7.20% | 7.28% |
| 5/1 ARM | 6.18% | 6.32% | 6.42% |
| 30-year FHA | 6.45% | 6.55% | 6.62% |
| 30-year VA | 6.32% | 6.42% | 6.50% |
Why rates went up
Mortgage rates went up from 6.73% on September 10 to 6.85-7.12% on September 13 for two reasons. (1) The hot August core CPI print (+0.3% MoM vs +0.2% consensus) on September 11 pushed the 10-year Treasury yield from 4.18% to 4.31%. (2) The Saudi East-West pipeline attack on September 12 pushed crude to $98 and the 10-year yield to 4.38%. The combined shock added 12-15 basis points to mortgage rates (Freddie Mac PMMS, September 11, 2026; Reuters, September 13, 2026).
Should I lock?
Lock your mortgage rate now if you have an application in process. The 92% Fed hike probability and the post-pipeline Treasury move mean a lock now is the lower-risk path. If the Fed surprises with a hold (8% odds), rates would ease 5-10 bp, but the carry cost of waiting typically exceeds that. Borrowers within 30 days of closing should lock today. Borrowers with 30-60 days can pay 0.25-0.50 points for a float-down option (Mortgage Research, September 13, 2026).
Next steps
For the Fed impact, see our September Fed decision post. For the pipeline context, see our pipeline shutdown post.
Related Coverage
Background and implications
The September 13, 2026 mortgage rate snapshot shows the 30-year fixed at 6.85-7.12% (up from 6.50-6.78% in early August) following the September 12 Saudi pipeline attack and renewed inflation expectations. The 15-year fixed sits at 5.98-6.18%, jumbo 30-year at 7.12-7.28%, and the 10-year Treasury at 4.38% (the key driver of mortgage rates). The 50-60 bp mortgage rate increase since June reflects three drivers: (1) the cumulative Iran-US tanker-war risk premium (~25 bp), (2) the September 12 Saudi pipeline shock adding another ~20 bp, and (3) Fed hawkish expectations from the August NFP miss and sticky core inflation. Homebuyer affordability in September 2026: median US home price ($385,000) financed at 7% requires a monthly payment of ~$2,560 (principal + interest + taxes + insurance), up from ~$2,200 at 6% in early summer. This is the lowest affordability level since 2007. The September 16 Fed meeting is now expected to be a 25-bp hike (vs 50% probability of hold pre-attack), which would push mortgage rates another 10-15 bp higher into October.
What this means for the housing market
The September 2026 mortgage rate environment is creating three structural pressures on the US housing market. First, transaction volume collapse: existing-home sales in July 2026 (latest NAR data) were 3.85 million annualized, down 27% year-over-year and the lowest level since 1995. Mortgage applications for purchase are down 35% year-over-year. The "lock-in effect" is now extreme: homeowners with 2020-2021 mortgages at 2.5-3.5% are unwilling to sell and take a 7%+ mortgage on the next home. Inventory remains constrained (4.1 months supply, well below the 6-month balanced level). Second, new-home sales benefit from builder incentives: builders can offer 4.99-5.99% buydown rates, allowing new-home sales to remain stable while existing-home sales collapse. D.R. Horton, Lennar, and PulteGroup reported Q2 2026 deliveries up 8-12% year-over-year despite the broader market weakness. Third, the regional divergence is sharp: Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West (Denver, Phoenix, Salt Lake City) are seeing 8-15% year-over-year price declines; the Northeast and Pacific Northwest are stable or modestly up. The Fed's September 16 hike will likely extend this divergence through Q4 2026 (Freddie Mac PMMS, NAR, Mortgage News Daily, CME FedWatch, September 2026).
Mortgage rate forecasts for Q4 2026
Most major bank forecasts (JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) now project Q4 2026 30-year fixed mortgage rates in the 6.80-7.30% range. Base case: 30Y fixed ends 2026 at 6.95-7.15%. Upside scenario (further escalation, more rate hikes): 30Y fixed ends 2026 at 7.30-7.50%. Downside scenario (September 14 Oman deal + Fed pause): 30Y fixed ends 2026 at 6.50-6.70%. Probability-weighted base case implies ~,650-,750 monthly PITI on the median US home (,000, 20% down) vs ,200-,400 at 2024-2025 rates.
Background and implications
The September 13, 2026 mortgage rate snapshot shows the 30-year fixed at 6.85-7.12% (up from 6.50-6.78% in early August) following the September 12 Saudi pipeline attack and renewed inflation expectations. The 15-year fixed sits at 5.98-6.18%, jumbo 30-year at 7.12-7.28%, and the 10-year Treasury at 4.38% (the key driver of mortgage rates). The 50-60 bp mortgage rate increase since June reflects three drivers: (1) the cumulative Iran-US tanker-war risk premium (~25 bp), (2) the September 12 Saudi pipeline shock adding another ~20 bp, and (3) Fed hawkish expectations from the August NFP miss and sticky core inflation. Homebuyer affordability in September 2026: median US home price ($385,000) financed at 7% requires a monthly payment of ~$2,560 (principal + interest + taxes + insurance), up from ~$2,200 at 6% in early summer. This is the lowest affordability level since 2007. The September 16 Fed meeting is now expected to be a 25-bp hike (vs 50% probability of hold pre-attack), which would push mortgage rates another 10-15 bp higher into October.
What this means for the housing market
The September 2026 mortgage rate environment is creating three structural pressures on the US housing market. First, transaction volume collapse: existing-home sales in July 2026 (latest NAR data) were 3.85 million annualized, down 27% year-over-year and the lowest level since 1995. Mortgage applications for purchase are down 35% year-over-year. The "lock-in effect" is now extreme: homeowners with 2020-2021 mortgages at 2.5-3.5% are unwilling to sell and take a 7%+ mortgage on the next home. Inventory remains constrained (4.1 months supply, well below the 6-month balanced level). Second, new-home sales benefit from builder incentives: builders can offer 4.99-5.99% buydown rates, allowing new-home sales to remain stable while existing-home sales collapse. D.R. Horton, Lennar, and PulteGroup reported Q2 2026 deliveries up 8-12% year-over-year despite the broader market weakness. Third, the regional divergence is sharp: Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West (Denver, Phoenix, Salt Lake City) are seeing 8-15% year-over-year price declines; the Northeast and Pacific Northwest are stable or modestly up. The Fed's September 16 hike will likely extend this divergence through Q4 2026 (Freddie Mac PMMS, NAR, Mortgage News Daily, CME FedWatch, September 2026).
Mortgage rate forecasts for Q4 2026
Most major bank forecasts (JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) now project Q4 2026 30-year fixed mortgage rates in the 6.80-7.30% range. Base case: 30Y fixed ends 2026 at 6.95-7.15%. Upside scenario (further escalation, more rate hikes): 30Y fixed ends 2026 at 7.30-7.50%. Downside scenario (September 14 Oman deal + Fed pause): 30Y fixed ends 2026 at 6.50-6.70%. Probability-weighted base case implies ~,650-,750 monthly PITI on the median US home (,000, 20% down) vs ,200-,400 at 2024-2025 rates.
Background and implications
The September 13, 2026 mortgage rate snapshot shows the 30-year fixed at 6.85-7.12% (up from 6.50-6.78% in early August) following the September 12 Saudi pipeline attack and renewed inflation expectations. The 15-year fixed sits at 5.98-6.18%, jumbo 30-year at 7.12-7.28%, and the 10-year Treasury at 4.38% (the key driver of mortgage rates). The 50-60 bp mortgage rate increase since June reflects three drivers: (1) the cumulative Iran-US tanker-war risk premium (~25 bp), (2) the September 12 Saudi pipeline shock adding another ~20 bp, and (3) Fed hawkish expectations from the August NFP miss and sticky core inflation. Homebuyer affordability in September 2026: median US home price ($385,000) financed at 7% requires a monthly payment of ~$2,560 (principal + interest + taxes + insurance), up from ~$2,200 at 6% in early summer. This is the lowest affordability level since 2007. The September 16 Fed meeting is now expected to be a 25-bp hike (vs 50% probability of hold pre-attack), which would push mortgage rates another 10-15 bp higher into October.
What this means for the housing market
The September 2026 mortgage rate environment is creating three structural pressures on the US housing market. First, transaction volume collapse: existing-home sales in July 2026 (latest NAR data) were 3.85 million annualized, down 27% year-over-year and the lowest level since 1995. Mortgage applications for purchase are down 35% year-over-year. The "lock-in effect" is now extreme: homeowners with 2020-2021 mortgages at 2.5-3.5% are unwilling to sell and take a 7%+ mortgage on the next home. Inventory remains constrained (4.1 months supply, well below the 6-month balanced level). Second, new-home sales benefit from builder incentives: builders can offer 4.99-5.99% buydown rates, allowing new-home sales to remain stable while existing-home sales collapse. D.R. Horton, Lennar, and PulteGroup reported Q2 2026 deliveries up 8-12% year-over-year despite the broader market weakness. Third, the regional divergence is sharp: Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West (Denver, Phoenix, Salt Lake City) are seeing 8-15% year-over-year price declines; the Northeast and Pacific Northwest are stable or modestly up. The Fed's September 16 hike will likely extend this divergence through Q4 2026 (Freddie Mac PMMS, NAR, Mortgage News Daily, CME FedWatch, September 2026).
Mortgage rate forecasts for Q4 2026
Most major bank forecasts (JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) now project Q4 2026 30-year fixed mortgage rates in the 6.80-7.30% range. Base case: 30Y fixed ends 2026 at 6.95-7.15%. Upside scenario (further escalation, more rate hikes): 30Y fixed ends 2026 at 7.30-7.50%. Downside scenario (September 14 Oman deal + Fed pause): 30Y fixed ends 2026 at 6.50-6.70%. Probability-weighted base case implies ~,650-,750 monthly PITI on the median US home (,000, 20% down) vs ,200-,400 at 2024-2025 rates.
Background and implications
The September 13, 2026 mortgage rate snapshot shows the 30-year fixed at 6.85-7.12% (up from 6.50-6.78% in early August) following the September 12 Saudi pipeline attack and renewed inflation expectations. The 15-year fixed sits at 5.98-6.18%, jumbo 30-year at 7.12-7.28%, and the 10-year Treasury at 4.38% (the key driver of mortgage rates). The 50-60 bp mortgage rate increase since June reflects three drivers: (1) the cumulative Iran-US tanker-war risk premium (~25 bp), (2) the September 12 Saudi pipeline shock adding another ~20 bp, and (3) Fed hawkish expectations from the August NFP miss and sticky core inflation. Homebuyer affordability in September 2026: median US home price ($385,000) financed at 7% requires a monthly payment of ~$2,560 (principal + interest + taxes + insurance), up from ~$2,200 at 6% in early summer. This is the lowest affordability level since 2007. The September 16 Fed meeting is now expected to be a 25-bp hike (vs 50% probability of hold pre-attack), which would push mortgage rates another 10-15 bp higher into October.
What this means for the housing market
The September 2026 mortgage rate environment is creating three structural pressures on the US housing market. First, transaction volume collapse: existing-home sales in July 2026 (latest NAR data) were 3.85 million annualized, down 27% year-over-year and the lowest level since 1995. Mortgage applications for purchase are down 35% year-over-year. The "lock-in effect" is now extreme: homeowners with 2020-2021 mortgages at 2.5-3.5% are unwilling to sell and take a 7%+ mortgage on the next home. Inventory remains constrained (4.1 months supply, well below the 6-month balanced level). Second, new-home sales benefit from builder incentives: builders can offer 4.99-5.99% buydown rates, allowing new-home sales to remain stable while existing-home sales collapse. D.R. Horton, Lennar, and PulteGroup reported Q2 2026 deliveries up 8-12% year-over-year despite the broader market weakness. Third, the regional divergence is sharp: Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West (Denver, Phoenix, Salt Lake City) are seeing 8-15% year-over-year price declines; the Northeast and Pacific Northwest are stable or modestly up. The Fed's September 16 hike will likely extend this divergence through Q4 2026 (Freddie Mac PMMS, NAR, Mortgage News Daily, CME FedWatch, September 2026).
Mortgage rate forecasts for Q4 2026
Most major bank forecasts (JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) now project Q4 2026 30-year fixed mortgage rates in the 6.80-7.30% range. Base case: 30Y fixed ends 2026 at 6.95-7.15%. Upside scenario (further escalation, more rate hikes): 30Y fixed ends 2026 at 7.30-7.50%. Downside scenario (September 14 Oman deal + Fed pause): 30Y fixed ends 2026 at 6.50-6.70%. Probability-weighted base case implies ~,650-,750 monthly PITI on the median US home (,000, 20% down) vs ,200-,400 at 2024-2025 rates.
Background and implications
The September 13, 2026 mortgage rate snapshot shows the 30-year fixed at 6.85-7.12% (up from 6.50-6.78% in early August) following the September 12 Saudi pipeline attack and renewed inflation expectations. The 15-year fixed sits at 5.98-6.18%, jumbo 30-year at 7.12-7.28%, and the 10-year Treasury at 4.38% (the key driver of mortgage rates). The 50-60 bp mortgage rate increase since June reflects three drivers: (1) the cumulative Iran-US tanker-war risk premium (~25 bp), (2) the September 12 Saudi pipeline shock adding another ~20 bp, and (3) Fed hawkish expectations from the August NFP miss and sticky core inflation. Homebuyer affordability in September 2026: median US home price ($385,000) financed at 7% requires a monthly payment of ~$2,560 (principal + interest + taxes + insurance), up from ~$2,200 at 6% in early summer. This is the lowest affordability level since 2007. The September 16 Fed meeting is now expected to be a 25-bp hike (vs 50% probability of hold pre-attack), which would push mortgage rates another 10-15 bp higher into October.
What this means for the housing market
The September 2026 mortgage rate environment is creating three structural pressures on the US housing market. First, transaction volume collapse: existing-home sales in July 2026 (latest NAR data) were 3.85 million annualized, down 27% year-over-year and the lowest level since 1995. Mortgage applications for purchase are down 35% year-over-year. The "lock-in effect" is now extreme: homeowners with 2020-2021 mortgages at 2.5-3.5% are unwilling to sell and take a 7%+ mortgage on the next home. Inventory remains constrained (4.1 months supply, well below the 6-month balanced level). Second, new-home sales benefit from builder incentives: builders can offer 4.99-5.99% buydown rates, allowing new-home sales to remain stable while existing-home sales collapse. D.R. Horton, Lennar, and PulteGroup reported Q2 2026 deliveries up 8-12% year-over-year despite the broader market weakness. Third, the regional divergence is sharp: Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West (Denver, Phoenix, Salt Lake City) are seeing 8-15% year-over-year price declines; the Northeast and Pacific Northwest are stable or modestly up. The Fed's September 16 hike will likely extend this divergence through Q4 2026 (Freddie Mac PMMS, NAR, Mortgage News Daily, CME FedWatch, September 2026).
Mortgage rate forecasts for Q4 2026
Most major bank forecasts (JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) now project Q4 2026 30-year fixed mortgage rates in the 6.80-7.30% range. Base case: 30Y fixed ends 2026 at 6.95-7.15%. Upside scenario (further escalation, more rate hikes): 30Y fixed ends 2026 at 7.30-7.50%. Downside scenario (September 14 Oman deal + Fed pause): 30Y fixed ends 2026 at 6.50-6.70%. Probability-weighted base case implies ~,650-,750 monthly PITI on the median US home (,000, 20% down) vs ,200-,400 at 2024-2025 rates.
