Published September 15, 2026 - New York, NY. Goldman Sachs Research raised their Fed hike call to 100% for the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting following the August CPI hot core print, while Credit Agricole CIB leans toward a hold with hawkish tone and the Reuters analyst poll shows a split picture.
Data last verified September 15, 2026 from Goldman Sachs Research, Credit Agricole CIB Research, Reuters poll, Kalshi prediction market, and Federal News Network coverage.
Quick Answer
Goldman Sachs Research raised their September 2026 Fed hike call to 100% post-CPI, expecting 2 cuts in 2027 (September and December) and a terminal rate of 3.25-3.50%. Credit Agricole leans hold with hawkish tone. Reuters poll: hold. Kalshi: ~52% hike. Last verified: Sep 15, 2026.
At a glance
- Goldman Sachs: 100% hike call, terminal 3.25-3.50%
- Credit Agricole CIB: hold (low conviction, hawkish tone)
- Reuters poll (Sep 9): hold through 2026
- Kalshi prediction market: ~52% hike, ~46% hold
- CME FedWatch: 83% hike (post-CPI)
- August CPI trigger: core +0.3% m/m vs +0.2% consensus
- 2027 cut timing: September and December (shifted from June/Dec)
The Goldman Sachs hike call in detail
Goldman Sachs Research added a 25bp hike at the September 16 meeting to their forecast last Friday following the August CPI report. The shift was decisive, not incremental.
Goldman Sachs Research now expects two cuts in 2027, shifted from June and December to September and December. The terminal rate forecast rose to 3.25-3.50% from 3.00-3.25% previously. The reasoning: a hot core CPI print, a Fed Chair with hawkish Jackson Hole tone, and labor market data still consistent with above-target inflation (Goldman Sachs Research, September 14, 2026).
Goldman Sachs forecast revision path
Goldman Sachs's call has shifted incrementally since June 2026 as data has rolled in. Each revision has been in the hawkish direction.
| Date | GS Sep 16 call | GS terminal rate | 2027 cut timing | Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2026 forecast | Hold (low hike prob) | 3.00-3.25% | June, December | Pre-July FOMC baseline |
| August 2026 update | Hold with hike risk | 3.00-3.25% | June, December | Warsh Jackson Hole hawkish tone |
| September 5, 2026 | 50% hike / 50% hold | 3.00-3.25% | June, December | Soft July payrolls mixed |
| September 12, 2026 (post-CPI) | 100% hike | 3.25-3.50% | September, December | August CPI hot core print |
| September 14, 2026 (latest) | 100% hike (confirmed) | 3.25-3.50% | September, December | Continued hawkish positioning |
Source: Goldman Sachs Research forecast revisions, June through September 2026; BLS data releases triggering each revision.
The bank-call split for September 16
Wall Street banks are split between hike and hold calls, with the dissent centered on conviction rather than direction. The hawkish bias is shared even by hold-callers.
| Source | Sep 16 call | Conviction | Forward path view |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs Research | 25bp hike | High (post-CPI) | 2 cuts in 2027; terminal 3.25-3.50% |
| Credit Agricole CIB | Hold | Low (hawkish tone anyway) | Hike possible at October or December meeting |
| JPMorgan Chase | 25bp hike | Medium | Terminal 3.00-3.25%; one cut in 2027 |
| Morgan Stanley | 25bp hike | Medium | Terminal 3.50-3.75%; pause through 2027 |
| Wells Fargo | 25bp hike | Medium | Terminal 3.25-3.50%; 2 cuts in 2027 |
| Deutsche Bank | 25bp hike | Medium | Terminal 3.25-3.50%; pause through 2027 |
| Bank of America | Hold | Low | Hike possible at October meeting |
| Citibank | 25bp hike | Medium | Terminal 3.25-3.50% |
Source: Goldman Sachs Research, September 14, 2026; Credit Agricole CIB Research, September 14, 2026; bank research notes aggregated by Bloomberg, September 2026.
The Reuters poll pre-CPI
The Reuters poll of economists on September 9, 2026 showed most analysts expecting the Fed to hold through 2026. The post-CPI distribution has likely shifted.
The poll was conducted between September 2-7 and showed roughly 60% of analysts expecting no change at the September 16 meeting. However, the rising number of analysts see at least one 2026 hike, with the median economist projecting one hike by year-end. The poll typically lags market moves by 1-2 weeks because of the survey methodology (Reuters Fed poll, September 9, 2026; Bloomberg economist survey, September 2026).
The Kalshi prediction market signal
The Kalshi prediction market for the September 16 Fed decision has accumulated $42+ million in trading volume with the market pricing roughly 52% hike, 46% hold. Prediction markets are the most current read on trader sentiment.
Kalshi's Fed-decision contract settles on whether the Fed hikes, holds, or cuts at the September 16 meeting. As of September 8, 2026, the market showed approximately 52% probability of a 25bp hike, 46% probability of a hold, and less than 2% probability of a cut. The volume of $42+ million indicates significant institutional participation, not just retail traders. Kalshi's read aligns closely with the CME FedWatch tool, which put hike odds at 83% after the August CPI release (Federal News Network, September 8, 2026; Kalshi Fed contract data, September 2026).
Comparing all the Fed-decision probability sources
Five probability sources give slightly different read-throughs on the September 16 decision. Each captures a different segment of the market.
| Probability source | Hike probability | Hold probability | Cut probability | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CME FedWatch (Fed Funds futures) | 83% | 17% | 0% | Fed Funds futures pricing |
| Kalshi prediction market | 52% | 46% | 2% | Retail + institutional traders |
| Centralbank.watch | 83% | 17% | 0% | Overnight Index Swap pricing |
| Goldman Sachs Research | 100% | 0% | 0% | Bank research call |
| Credit Agricole CIB | 35% | 65% | 0% | Bank research call |
| Reuters economist poll (Sep 9) | 40% | 55% | 5% | Survey of economists |
Source: CME FedWatch, September 14, 2026; Kalshi Fed contract, September 8, 2026; centralbank.watch, September 14, 2026; Goldman Sachs Research, September 14, 2026; Credit Agricole CIB Research, September 14, 2026; Reuters poll, September 9, 2026.
Why Credit Agricole leans hold
Credit Agricole CIB expects the Fed to stay on hold at September 16, though with about as little conviction as possible. Their hawkish tone leaves the door open to a hike at a later meeting.
Credit Agricole CIB Research expects the September statement to remain much shorter and more concise than in recent years, in line with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first two meetings. They expect a hawkish tone that keeps rate hikes on the table at upcoming meetings. The Warsh Jackson Hole hawkishness should echo in the press conference. The hold call is more about timing than direction (Credit Agricole CIB Research, September 14, 2026).
Implications for mortgages and credit cards
If Goldman Sachs is right and the Fed hikes Wednesday, mortgage rates could push toward 7.00-7.25% by end of September. Credit card APRs rise with prime at the next billing cycle.
Mortgage rates are at 6.83-7.10% on the 30-year fixed as of mid-September 2026. A hawkish hike plus dot plot guidance could add 5-15bp over 1-2 weeks. A surprise hold with hawkish guidance would likely keep rates in the current range. Credit card APRs rise 25bp with prime at the next billing cycle, adding roughly $300/year in interest on a $20,000 balance. Savings and CD yields rise 10-20bp within 30-60 days (Goldman Sachs Research, September 14, 2026; Freddie Mac PMMS, September 13, 2026).
FAQs
The questions above cover Goldman Sachs's hike call rationale, the Credit Agricole hold view, the Reuters pre-CPI poll, the Kalshi prediction market signal, the broader bank-call split, and implications for mortgages and credit cards.
Written by
Fazlur Rahman is the founder of Tutorsbot, building AI-powered tools for learning and career growth. He writes about applying AI in real products and the practi… Read moreShow less
Fazlur Rahman is the founder of Tutorsbot, building AI-powered tools for learning and career growth. He writes about applying AI in real products and the practical side of building an ed-tech startup.
