Published September 15, 2026 - New York, NY. The Reuters poll of economists published September 14, 2026 showed a majority expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates at the September 16 meeting with at least one more hike to follow through 2026. The shift from hold to hike came after the August CPI hot core print on September 11.
Data last verified September 15, 2026 from Reuters poll, Reuters Markets poll methodology, BLS CPI release, and Goldman Sachs Research.
Quick Answer
Reuters poll Sep 14, 2026: majority expect Fed hike Wednesday plus at least one more in 2026. ~75 economists surveyed. Median forecast: 2 hikes in 2026, 2 cuts in 2027, terminal 3.50-4.00%. Last verified: Sep 15, 2026.
At a glance
- Poll date: September 14, 2026
- Economists surveyed: ~75
- Sep 16 hike expectation: ~65% (post-CPI shift)
- Second 2026 hike expectation: ~55%
- Median 2027 path: 2 cuts (Q2, Q4)
- Terminal rate forecast: 3.50-4.00%
- Major shift trigger: August CPI hot core print
The Reuters poll methodology
The Reuters poll of economists surveys 60-100 economists from major financial institutions and is one of the most widely cited surveys for Fed policy expectations. The September 14, 2026 poll included approximately 75 economists.
The poll is conducted by Reuters Markets in partnership with Refinitiv (formerly Thomson Reuters). Respondents include economists from major banks (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, BNP Paribas, HSBC, UBS), asset managers (BlackRock, Vanguard, Fidelity, PIMCO), and academic institutions. The poll is conducted weekly around Fed meetings and monthly otherwise. Results are reported as median forecasts with quartile ranges (Reuters Markets poll methodology, September 14, 2026).
Median forecast breakdown
The Reuters poll median forecast includes specific projections for the next four Fed decisions and the longer-term terminal rate. Each projection reflects the modal expectation among surveyed economists.
| Fed decision / period | Median forecast | Range (25th-75th percentile) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 16, 2026 | +25bp | Hold to +25bp | 65% hike, 35% hold (post-CPI) |
| October 28-29, 2026 | Hold | Hold to +25bp | 45% hike, 55% hold |
| December 15-16, 2026 | +25bp | Hold to +25bp | 55% hike, 45% hold |
| End-2026 rate | 4.75-5.00% | 4.50-5.00% | Two hikes baseline |
| 2027 path | 2 cuts (Q2, Q4) | 1-3 cuts | First cut timing uncertain |
| End-2027 rate | 4.00-4.25% | 3.50-4.50% | Cumulative 100bp easing in 2027 |
| Terminal rate | 3.50-4.00% | 3.25-4.25% | Slightly higher than June SEP |
Source: Reuters poll, September 14, 2026; Goldman Sachs Research, September 14, 2026.
How the Reuters poll compares to other forecasts
The Reuters poll median is broadly aligned with major bank forecasts but with some divergence on specific timing. The alignment suggests consensus around the hike call.
| Forecaster | Sep 16 | Q4 2026 | 2027 path | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuters poll median | +25bp | +25bp | 2 cuts (Q2, Q4) | 3.50-4.00% |
| Goldman Sachs Research | +25bp | +25bp (Dec) | 2 cuts (Sep, Dec) | 3.25-3.50% |
| JPMorgan Chase | +25bp | +25bp | 1 cut | 3.00-3.25% |
| Morgan Stanley | +25bp | Hold | 0 cuts in 2027 | 3.50-3.75% |
| Wells Fargo | +25bp | +25bp | 2 cuts | 3.25-3.50% |
| Deutsche Bank | +25bp | Hold | 2 cuts (Q3, Q4) | 3.25-3.50% |
| Credit Agricole CIB | Hold | +25bp (later in Q4) | 2 cuts | 3.50% |
Source: Reuters poll, September 14, 2026; Goldman Sachs Research, September 14, 2026; JPMorgan Chase research, September 14, 2026; Morgan Stanley research, September 14, 2026; Wells Fargo research, September 2026; Deutsche Bank research, September 2026; Credit Agricole CIB Research, September 14, 2026.
Pre-CPI vs post-CPI shift
The Reuters poll showed a clear shift from hold to hike calls after the August CPI release on September 11. The shift was substantial and reflects the hot core CPI print.
Pre-CPI (September 8): roughly 60% of economists expected no change Wednesday; 40% expected a 25bp hike. Post-CPI (September 14): the proportions flipped to roughly 65% expecting a hike and 35% expecting no change. The hot core CPI print at +0.3% m/m versus +0.2% consensus was the proximate driver of the shift. The shift happened within 3 days of the CPI release, faster than typical for economist surveys which often lag market moves by 1-2 weeks (Reuters poll methodology, September 14, 2026; BLS CPI release, September 11, 2026).
What the median forecast means for mortgages and credit cards
The Reuters poll median forecast implies continued upward pressure on mortgage rates and credit card APRs through year-end 2026. Two 25bp hikes in 2026 plus continued 10-year Treasury pressure keep borrowing costs elevated.
Mortgage rates at 6.83-7.10% on the 30-year fixed as of September 15, 2026 could push toward 7.10-7.30% by year-end if the Fed delivers two hikes as the Reuters poll median expects and the 10-year Treasury holds above 5.00%. Credit card APRs, tied to prime, would rise 50bp total (25bp per hike) before year-end, adding roughly $600 per year in interest on a $20,000 balance. Savings and CD yields would rise 20-40bp within 60-90 days (Mortgage News Daily, September 15, 2026; Bankrate credit card tracker, September 2026).
Risks to the median forecast
Three risks could push the Fed away from the Reuters poll median forecast. Each risk affects timing and magnitude.
| Risk | Probability | Forecast impact |
|---|---|---|
| Hot September CPI (Oct 11) core +0.3% m/m | 30% | Pushes terminal rate forecast up to 4.00-4.25% |
| Weak September jobs (Oct 4) below 100K | 25% | Skips October hike; 2027 cuts move to Q1-Q3 |
| Financial stability event | 10% | Fed pivots dovish; 2026 hikes dropped |
Source: Reuters poll, September 14, 2026; Goldman Sachs Research scenario analysis, September 14, 2026; Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Survey, Q3 2026.
FAQs
The questions above cover what the Reuters poll shows, how many economists participated, the median forecast through 2026, how it compares to Goldman Sachs, why the shift occurred post-CPI, and risks to the median forecast.
Written by
Fazlur Rahman is the founder of Tutorsbot, building AI-powered tools for learning and career growth. He writes about applying AI in real products and the practi… Read moreShow less
Fazlur Rahman is the founder of Tutorsbot, building AI-powered tools for learning and career growth. He writes about applying AI in real products and the practical side of building an ed-tech startup.
