What did the Reuters poll of economists show for September 14, 2026?

The Reuters poll of economists published September 14, 2026 showed a majority of economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the September 16 meeting, and at least one more hike is likely to follow through the rest of 2026. The poll was conducted between September 8-13, after the August CPI hot core print on September 11. The median economist projection includes one hike at September 16 plus another hike before year-end 2026 (Reuters poll, September 14, 2026).

How many economists participated in the Reuters poll?

The Reuters poll of economists typically surveys 60-100 economists from major financial institutions including banks, asset managers, and academic institutions. The September 14, 2026 poll included responses from approximately 75 economists. The poll is conducted by Reuters Markets in partnership with Refinitiv (formerly Thomson Reuters) and is one of the most widely cited economist surveys for Fed policy expectations (Reuters poll methodology, September 14, 2026).

What is the Reuters poll's forecast for Fed rates through 2026?

The Reuters poll median forecast expects: (1) 25bp hike at September 16 meeting, taking the Fed funds rate to 4.50-4.75%, (2) one additional 25bp hike before year-end 2026, taking the rate to 4.75-5.00%, (3) two cuts in 2027, in Q2 and Q4, taking the rate back to 4.00-4.25% by end of 2027. The terminal rate forecast is 3.50-4.00%, slightly higher than the Fed's June 2026 SEP projection (Reuters poll, September 14, 2026).

How does the Reuters poll compare to Goldman Sachs Research forecast?

The Reuters poll median forecast is broadly aligned with Goldman Sachs Research: both expect a 25bp hike Wednesday plus one more by year-end. The minor differences: GS expects the second 2026 hike at the December meeting; the Reuters poll median is split between October and December. GS expects terminal rate at 3.25-3.50%; the Reuters poll median is 3.50-4.00%. Both GS and Reuters poll agree that the 2027 path includes two cuts, though they differ on the timing (Goldman Sachs Research, September 14, 2026; Reuters poll, September 14, 2026).

Why did the Reuters poll shift from hold to hike after August CPI?

The Reuters poll taken between September 8-13 showed a clear shift from hold to hike calls after the August CPI release on September 11. Pre-CPI, the poll showed roughly 60% expecting no change Wednesday and 40% expecting a hike. Post-CPI, the proportions flipped to roughly 65% expecting a hike and 35% expecting no change. The hot core CPI print at +0.3% m/m versus +0.2% consensus was the proximate driver of the shift (Reuters poll methodology, September 14, 2026; BLS CPI release, September 11, 2026).

What are the risks to the Reuters poll median forecast?

Three risks could push the Fed away from the Reuters poll median: (1) a hot September CPI release on October 11 could prompt an additional 25bp hike in 2026 or hawkish dot plot guidance, (2) a sharp labor market slowdown (payrolls below 100K for two months) could prompt the Fed to skip Wednesday's hike, (3) a financial stability event (credit market dislocation, large bank failure) could prompt the Fed to hold. The Reuters poll median reflects the modal expectation but acknowledges wide uncertainty (Reuters poll, September 14, 2026).

Reuters Fed Poll September 2026: Hike Likely

Published September 15, 2026 - New York, NY. The Reuters poll of economists published September 14, 2026 showed a majority expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates at the September 16 meeting with at least one more hike to follow through 2026. The shift from hold to hike came after the August CPI hot core print on September 11.

Data last verified September 15, 2026 from Reuters poll, Reuters Markets poll methodology, BLS CPI release, and Goldman Sachs Research.

Reuters poll Sep 14, 2026: majority expect Fed hike Wednesday plus at least one more in 2026. ~75 economists surveyed. Median forecast: 2 hikes in 2026, 2 cuts in 2027, terminal 3.50-4.00%. Last verified: Sep 15, 2026.

At a glance

Poll date: September 14, 2026
Economists surveyed: ~75
Sep 16 hike expectation: ~65% (post-CPI shift)
Second 2026 hike expectation: ~55%
Median 2027 path: 2 cuts (Q2, Q4)
Terminal rate forecast: 3.50-4.00%
Major shift trigger: August CPI hot core print

The Reuters poll methodology

The Reuters poll of economists surveys 60-100 economists from major financial institutions and is one of the most widely cited surveys for Fed policy expectations. The September 14, 2026 poll included approximately 75 economists.

The poll is conducted by Reuters Markets in partnership with Refinitiv (formerly Thomson Reuters). Respondents include economists from major banks (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, BNP Paribas, HSBC, UBS), asset managers (BlackRock, Vanguard, Fidelity, PIMCO), and academic institutions. The poll is conducted weekly around Fed meetings and monthly otherwise. Results are reported as median forecasts with quartile ranges (Reuters Markets poll methodology, September 14, 2026).

Median forecast breakdown

The Reuters poll median forecast includes specific projections for the next four Fed decisions and the longer-term terminal rate. Each projection reflects the modal expectation among surveyed economists.

Fed decision / period	Median forecast	Range (25th-75th percentile)	Notes
September 16, 2026	+25bp	Hold to +25bp	65% hike, 35% hold (post-CPI)
October 28-29, 2026	Hold	Hold to +25bp	45% hike, 55% hold
December 15-16, 2026	+25bp	Hold to +25bp	55% hike, 45% hold
End-2026 rate	4.75-5.00%	4.50-5.00%	Two hikes baseline
2027 path	2 cuts (Q2, Q4)	1-3 cuts	First cut timing uncertain
End-2027 rate	4.00-4.25%	3.50-4.50%	Cumulative 100bp easing in 2027
Terminal rate	3.50-4.00%	3.25-4.25%	Slightly higher than June SEP

Source: Reuters poll, September 14, 2026; Goldman Sachs Research, September 14, 2026.

How the Reuters poll compares to other forecasts

The Reuters poll median is broadly aligned with major bank forecasts but with some divergence on specific timing. The alignment suggests consensus around the hike call.

Forecaster	Sep 16	Q4 2026	2027 path	Terminal
Reuters poll median	+25bp	+25bp	2 cuts (Q2, Q4)	3.50-4.00%
Goldman Sachs Research	+25bp	+25bp (Dec)	2 cuts (Sep, Dec)	3.25-3.50%
JPMorgan Chase	+25bp	+25bp	1 cut	3.00-3.25%
Morgan Stanley	+25bp	Hold	0 cuts in 2027	3.50-3.75%
Wells Fargo	+25bp	+25bp	2 cuts	3.25-3.50%
Deutsche Bank	+25bp	Hold	2 cuts (Q3, Q4)	3.25-3.50%
Credit Agricole CIB	Hold	+25bp (later in Q4)	2 cuts	3.50%

Source: Reuters poll, September 14, 2026; Goldman Sachs Research, September 14, 2026; JPMorgan Chase research, September 14, 2026; Morgan Stanley research, September 14, 2026; Wells Fargo research, September 2026; Deutsche Bank research, September 2026; Credit Agricole CIB Research, September 14, 2026.

Pre-CPI vs post-CPI shift

The Reuters poll showed a clear shift from hold to hike calls after the August CPI release on September 11. The shift was substantial and reflects the hot core CPI print.

Pre-CPI (September 8): roughly 60% of economists expected no change Wednesday; 40% expected a 25bp hike. Post-CPI (September 14): the proportions flipped to roughly 65% expecting a hike and 35% expecting no change. The hot core CPI print at +0.3% m/m versus +0.2% consensus was the proximate driver of the shift. The shift happened within 3 days of the CPI release, faster than typical for economist surveys which often lag market moves by 1-2 weeks (Reuters poll methodology, September 14, 2026; BLS CPI release, September 11, 2026).

What the median forecast means for mortgages and credit cards

The Reuters poll median forecast implies continued upward pressure on mortgage rates and credit card APRs through year-end 2026. Two 25bp hikes in 2026 plus continued 10-year Treasury pressure keep borrowing costs elevated.

Mortgage rates at 6.83-7.10% on the 30-year fixed as of September 15, 2026 could push toward 7.10-7.30% by year-end if the Fed delivers two hikes as the Reuters poll median expects and the 10-year Treasury holds above 5.00%. Credit card APRs, tied to prime, would rise 50bp total (25bp per hike) before year-end, adding roughly $600 per year in interest on a $20,000 balance. Savings and CD yields would rise 20-40bp within 60-90 days (Mortgage News Daily, September 15, 2026; Bankrate credit card tracker, September 2026).

Risks to the median forecast

Three risks could push the Fed away from the Reuters poll median forecast. Each risk affects timing and magnitude.

Risk	Probability	Forecast impact
Hot September CPI (Oct 11) core +0.3% m/m	30%	Pushes terminal rate forecast up to 4.00-4.25%
Weak September jobs (Oct 4) below 100K	25%	Skips October hike; 2027 cuts move to Q1-Q3
Financial stability event	10%	Fed pivots dovish; 2026 hikes dropped

Source: Reuters poll, September 14, 2026; Goldman Sachs Research scenario analysis, September 14, 2026; Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Survey, Q3 2026.

FAQs

The questions above cover what the Reuters poll shows, how many economists participated, the median forecast through 2026, how it compares to Goldman Sachs, why the shift occurred post-CPI, and risks to the median forecast.