Fazlur Rahman
Published September 15, 2026 - New York, NY. The Reuters poll of economists published September 14, 2026 showed a majority expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates at the September 16 meeting with at least one more hike to follow through 2026. The shift from hold to hike came after the August CPI hot core print on September 11.
Data last verified September 15, 2026 from Reuters poll, Reuters Markets poll methodology, BLS CPI release, and Goldman Sachs Research.
Reuters poll Sep 14, 2026: majority expect Fed hike Wednesday plus at least one more in 2026. ~75 economists surveyed. Median forecast: 2 hikes in 2026, 2 cuts in 2027, terminal 3.50-4.00%. Last verified: Sep 15, 2026.
At a glance
- Poll date: September 14, 2026
- Economists surveyed: ~75
- Sep 16 hike expectation: ~65% (post-CPI shift)
- Second 2026 hike expectation: ~55%
- Median 2027 path: 2 cuts (Q2, Q4)
- Terminal rate forecast: 3.50-4.00%
- Major shift trigger: August CPI hot core print
The Reuters poll methodology
The Reuters poll of economists surveys 60-100 economists from major financial institutions and is one of the most widely cited surveys for Fed policy expectations. The September 14, 2026 poll included approximately 75 economists.
The poll is conducted by Reuters Markets in partnership with Refinitiv (formerly Thomson Reuters). Respondents include economists from major banks (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, BNP Paribas, HSBC, UBS), asset managers (BlackRock, Vanguard, Fidelity, PIMCO), and academic institutions. The poll is conducted weekly around Fed meetings and monthly otherwise. Results are reported as median forecasts with quartile ranges (Reuters Markets poll methodology, September 14, 2026).
